High intensity, poll-timed allegations , corruption and sleaze, are a known phenomena in the Indian election history. This has become more pronounced during the last decade with even the topmost leaders indulging in no-holds-barred personalized attacks with allegations of corruption at high-places becoming the familiar theme. 

However, by and large, this has been a one-way traffic with the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance having the upper hand. The strategy is treating the political rivals as enemies, also a new concept in the over seven decades of the country’s democratic history, and fixing them using the might of the statecraft, squarely to win elections. By hook or by crook.

This one-way traffic ran smoothly and effectively for the ruling dispensation till Mr Pawan Khera, Chairman, Media & Publicity (Communication Department), AICC, broke the monotony with a set of serious allegations of corruption targeting Assam chief minister Mr Hemanta Biswa Sarma and his wife. As Mr Khera chose an opportune time, two days before campaign for assembly elections was to end, to hit at Mr Sarma, it naturally created a furore with the latter baying for the blood of the former and going vituperative not only against Mr Khera, but also the octogenarian Congress president, Mr Mallikarjun Kharge, and Mr Rahul Gandhi.

Ironically, at the state levels it is a showdown between two contrasting political models which have been at play at the nation’s political horizon since 2014. The line up has been “Hurricane Strategist vs Guarded Challenger” represented by Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Mr Rahul Gandhi, with Mr Kharge repeatedly getting trapped in the crossfire.

A true reflection of this model came to the fore in the form of dual between Mr Sarma and Mr Gaurav Gogoi, the incumbent chief minister spearheading the BJP campaign, and the CM hopeful of the Congress. Mr Khera’s tirade against Mr Sarma has not only taken the confrontation to the next level with only difference being that the Congress instead of BJP was the “instigator” and BJP the target this time around.

As Mr Sarma was frothing with anger as his no-holds-barred model, a replica of the BJP’s national model, was jolted by an opponent trying to beat him at his own game, his frustration was visible when he burst into expletives targeting Mr Kharge and Mr Gandhi, apart from Mr Khera. Notwithstanding the fact that the reins of power during elections rest with the Election Commission of India, CM Sarma’s public outbursts resulted in Assam Police losing no time in landing at Mr Khera’s doorsteps in Delhi, acting swiftly on an FIR filed by Mr Sarma’s wife overnight.

What did he say about Mr Kharge: “Kaun hai Kharge. Pagal hai woh…..”

What did he say about Mr Khera while impliedly targeting Mr Gandhi: “Khera would spend his “last moments” in an Assam jail, as he declared allegations against him and his wife as “fabricated”. “I would file a case against Mr Khera first, then turn the others into ‘peda’ (sweets), a remark ostensibly directed at Mr Gandhi.

The backdrop of this conflict was Mr Khera’s allegations, levelled at a press conference at the AICC headquarters in Delhi, that Mr Sarma’s wife, Ms Rinki Bhuyan Sarma, “holds multiple foreign passports and undisclosed overseas assets”. The genesis of Mr Khera’s allegations lies in similar charge levelled by Mr Sarma against Mr Gogoi alleging his wife’s “Pakistan links”.

Interestingly, Mr Sarma, a former Congressman, was once a blue-eyed boy of former chief minister Mr Tarun Gogoi and a senior minister in his cabinet before joining BJP, after Mr Gandhi had refused to entertain his claim to the chief minister’s chair. Of course, Mr Gaurav Gogoi is his (Tarun Gogoi’s) son.

Mr Sarma’s aggressive style of functioning and his strong-arm tactics seemed to have endeared him to the BJP big-wigs. With total backing of the saffron party’s central leadership, he was able not only to strengthen the BJP in Assam but also spread its footprint all across the North-East region of the country using multi-pronged tactics. As a reward he was made chief minister replacing old-BJP hand Mr Sarbanand Sonowal, causing heartburn among the loyal and trusted leaders and workers of the party.

In contrast, the foreign educated Mr Gaurav Gogoi has, over the years, evolved into a matured politician and an impressive parliamentarian before he was appointed as chief of Assam Congress months before the assembly elections. To Mr Sarma’s overtly aggressive approach, he has been calm, cool and calculated and holding on to his father’s legacy with aplomb.

Before posing a direct challenge to Mr Sarma’s chief ministership, Mr Gogoi had emphatically won the first round by emerging victorious in Lok Sabha elections. This was despite heavy odds and the former using all tools including diluting Mr Gogoi’s Lok Sabha constituency won by him in 2019. He had accepted the challenge and shifted to a more difficult constituency Jorhat which had been a sort of BJP stronghold, and convincingly won despite Mr Sarma’s towering presence.

His victory from Jorhat Lok Sabha seat was a serious set back to Mr Sarma and to the top BJP leadership in Delhi who had tried all means not only to defeat Mr Gogoi but also to limit the Congress to its previous strongholds. Ever since, Mr Gogoi grew in confidence with strong backing from Mr Gandhi.

How will the contrasting political models of rivalry manifest in the ongoing assembly elections in Assam?

Surely, the stakes are much higher this time both for BJP and the Congress than in the Lok Sabha polls. Assam has been the gateway to the North-East region of the country for BJP where hitherto it had no presence and wherein Mr Sarma had played an important role after he defected from the Congress leading to fulfillment of his chief ministerial ambitions. It is equally important for the BJP and Mr Sarma that BJP returned to power to keep its hold intact in this region with an eye on 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Even Mr Sarma, at a personal level, has much bigger stake this time than ever before. Leading BJP to victory will not only help him retain chief ministership but also add to his political muscle. A loss, that too at the hands of Rahul Gandhi- Gaurav Gogoi combine who have been his prime target, will result in considerable weakening of his political position and can put a question mark on his political career.

Congress has an opportunity at hand to stage a comeback in its former citadel, the North-Eastern India. A victory in Assam, the biggest of the states in the region, will give a big boost to the party which has been pushed to the oblivion by the BJP with Mr Sarma playing a stellar role in settling score with his erstwhile party and its leader Mr Gandhi.

Congress victory under Mr Gogoi, in the absence of his father, will be a big boost both for him and the party. For him it will be a landmark if the party chose him as chief minister if the Congress wins.